The Significance of Gold Price Forecasting

The recent global turmoil has reaffirmed the significance of gold as a safe and viable investment alternative. Other precious metals like platinum have not been able to take the position of gold, due to its high value and price volatility. In addition to retail investors, central banks, institutions, pension funds, etc. also take large positions in gold and drive its prices.

Why gold?
The one most apparent factor is that the lifetime returns on gold have been positive. Gold value is subject to short and medium-term fluctuations. However, it is not susceptible to the ups and downs of the economic and business cycles. This renders it a more stable investment in the long-term.

There is a negative correlation between the dollar rates and the gold prices. In the case of volatile market conditions or a weakening currency, people start replacing their dollar investments with gold. On one hand, this ensures that the investors do not lose their purchasing power by the day. On the other hand, the increased demand for gold pushes its prices up, augmenting the values of gold holdings. A weakening dollar is indicative of strengthening gold and vice-versa (this is mostly true, but not always).

Gold prices are not dependent upon the political or economic conditions. Events, like natural calamities, political disturbance, wartime etc. either do not affect gold value, or put an upward pressure on it. Therefore, in distress conditions gold acts as an effective hedging strategy to prevent the erosion in investor wealth.

Is gold always a ‘buy’?
Like stocks, investors often make a mistake of buying gold at a peak on the expectations of further price rise. Speculative gold trading has a large market and often the speculators accelerate the uptrend through futures and forwards. Such artificial price rally is liable to correction, sometimes leading to sudden plunge in value. Always remember the thumb rule to buy low and sell high.

Is jewelry worth the same as coin, bullion, or bars?
Jewelry yields lesser returns that the other forms due to the mixture of alloys, wear & tear, handling marks, and designing. In addition, gold jewelry is a costly acquisition because of its processing charges.

How to ensure right decisions?
Acquiring gold calls for more than intuition and tracking the mass sentiments. Guidance from expert precious metals consultants, newspapers, trade journals, investment websites, authentic investing forums, etc. are some of the reference points for making informed decisions.