Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Gold Investments

The gold prices recently touched an unprecedented level of $1,254. The trend of this price rise has however, been going for some time with the constant upward revision of support levels. The key question arising here is how stable is the trend? More generally, how safe is it to stay invested in gold?

Experts from the financial sector of the likes of George Soros are betting against quick recovery from the current delinquent state of the markets. They are of the view that it is still quite some time before it stabilizes. This is the major reason behind the flow of funds into gold in the form of bullion and other related products as gold ETFs.

A top Swiss asset manager reported that most of his rich clients were interested in wealth preservation during the crisis. This means that the bigger players will support any fall in the prices. In addition, people who wish to keep the prices in vigil would put in steps to check runaway prices for the precious metal. Summers being the holiday season for most of the financial planners and asset managers, the period is not likely to witness any increase, if not a fall. USAGold however, has reported that gold prices shot up at an average of 11.3 percent for the past 9 years. Also, the approximate growth from the fall i.e. June-July, to the end of the year has been 17.3 percent for the same period. Going by the trends, the gold prices can be expected to be a little less than $1,500 by December 2010.

Interestingly, there is a counter-view regarding the reliability of gold. Some foresee a fall in prices if a collapse similar to the one in 2008 returns to haunt the markets. The reason has been attributed to the possible requirement of liquidity covering in the event of cash-crunch. Still, the decline may not be as drastic as the other sectors.

Although the junior gold stocks and investments in other base metals were totally drowned during the 2008 collapse, these products have shown great resilience in 2009. According to an analysis by Lawrence Williams, if the market can be expected to stay anything better than going negative and gold to remain strong, the junior stocks are likely to provide the best of gains for the times to come. He insists that although the gold stocks have been reported to underperform during high times, they also proved a safer bet during the times of crisis.

Options for Gold Traders

Gold traders have been witnessing a bull market, with the global demand for gold surging 36%, or by $29.7 billion, in the first quarter of 2010, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Demand for gold ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) has spiked 540%. According to a WGC report, the demand for gold is expected to be bulling in 2010, backed by spiraling jewelry demand in India and China.

Gold Traders: Investment Options

There are several ways to invest in the gold market, which makes it necessary to comprehend each option and find the one that best suits one’s needs. Gold traders commonly deal in the following options:

• Gold bullion bars: Available in different weights, with varying gold and alloy compositions, gold bullion bars are the purest form of the metal. Consequently, the price of gold bullion bars tend to be very high, which as of the end of June, 2010 was around $1,242.

• Gold coins: These are minted by several countries. The US Mint gold coins, such as the gold Eagles, are the most commonly traded options. According to the WGC, 28,000 half-oz Eagles were purchased till mid-June 2010.

• Gold jewelry: The price charged by gold traders on jewelries depends on the gold content as well as the craftsmanship. Jewelry investment has become popular, with a market size of $613 million in the US alone, according to US census data - 2010.

• Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): Purchasing gold ETF is similar to investing in a regular stock. ETFs enable investors to paper trade the physical bullion. However, most ETF gold traders charge an annual account fee in addition to transaction charges. Gold ETFs have flourished since April 2010 due to the European fiscal crisis. On May 20, 2010 SPDR Gold Shares held a record of 1,200 tonnes, valued at US$46.88 billion.

Finally, gold traders can invest in the yellow metal by purchasing the stocks of a gold mining company. Gold trader invest in gold mutual funds with the intention of diversifying their risk on gold stocks. These entail investing in multiple gold or other precious metal mining companies.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Surging Gold: Coins in High Demand

After a brief lull, gold is fast regaining its popularity as the choicest investment option, especially in the trying times. The metal proved to be the best alternative to the volatile paper currency at the time of economic downturns. During the global recession of 2008, gold surged to record highs as the investors the world over began converting their cash holdings into the yellow metal. As the world economy seemed to be returning to normalcy, the commodity witnessed price correction, more significantly from December 2009 onwards. However, with the progress of the Fiscal Year 2010, the news of the Euro Zone Crisis started pouring in and acting as a major damper to the already shaky market sentiments. The fears of a second round of troubles gave a fresh boost to the gold demand in all forms, including coins.

The European sovereign debt crisis has made gold bullion particularly sought-after in Europe. The South African gold coin Krugerrand is currently enjoying higher valuation of the Canadian bullion, Gold Maple leaf. Meanwhile, the premium on the British bullion, Gold Sovereign is accelerating by the day. However, rooting to the concerns over the Euro Zone crisis, the rest of the world economy has made global investors wary of the foreign exchange rates moving against their home currencies. The sharp rise in the demand for the United States Gold Eagles is a proof of the sagging market view. The US bullion deliveries in the month of May 2010 shot up to double on a year-on-year basis. The US is also plagued by its own slow recovery and rising national debt, which has touched the unprecedented levels. The figure is estimated to be over $13 trillion!

The exact implication of the Greece-led instability is still a matter of debate, with conflicting news and opinions coming up often. Though the gold prices remain high, the uncertainty is making the investors wary of offloading their bullion inventories. However, in an interesting development, a member of the United States House of Representatives Anthony David Weiner from New York has accused Goldline Inc. of artificially promoting the demand for the American Eagles. In a statement from his office, the company is defined as “aggressive sales tactics, conservative spokespeople and rhetoric to sell over-priced gold coins to unsuspecting consumers.” It is hard to ascertain the proportion of the total coin demand so created and what comes out of the political roe over the issue. Meanwhile, the demand for BU and Mint State 20 cents is also picking up, such that much of the earlier price correction has already been covered.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Staggering Price for the 1794 Silver Dollar

The silver dollar was one of the earliest species to be issued from the United States Mint. Though, the Mint came into existence in 1792, red tape and cumbersome legal requirements deterred the official casting in precious metals until 1794. Unconfirmed accounts suggest that total 1,578 coins were struck in the year 1794. The entire lot was minted using a single pair of dies in one day, on October 15, 1794. Consequently, the strikes gradually became less prominent, resulting in the outright rejection of a large number of silver dollars. It is believed that today only 120 to 130 coins are available in acceptable net mintage. Therefore, the 1794 silver dollar is treated as a rare issue.

The Congress mandated that the design for the silver dollar was to feature ‘Liberty’ and commissioned the task to engraver Robert Scot. The obverse of the coin portrays the side view of the face of a young woman with freely flowing hair. This hairstyle is particularly symbolic of ‘freedom.’ The word ‘LIBERTY’ is engraved at the top along the circumference with fifteen stars representing the states. The lower portion contains the year of issue. The reverse side shows a bald eagle with outspread wings, encircled by laurel branches on either side. The eagle is depicted sitting on a rock and looking towards its left. The country’s name is engraved along the circumference.

The then Director of the US Mint, David Rittenhouse distributed some of the pieces as mementos to some VIPs, put some into the common circulation, while retained some of them. The uncirculated silver dollars are very few in number and are available in mint state grade, commanding very high valuations. On May 20, 2010, one such coin was sold under a private treaty sale at a stunning price of $7.85 million. This constitutes the highest value transaction in precious metal coins in the world and surpasses a previous record of $7.59 for a 1933 American Double Eagle (gold). The President of the Rare Coins Wholesalers, Steven L. Contursi sold it to Cardinal Collection Educational Foundation, California, after holding it for last seven years.

Many analysts and experts believe that this particular piece is the first silver dollar ever struck. However, concrete evidence to this effect is not available. The dollar retains its pristine shape, making it more significant than its other counterparts do. The visible file marks were created to make the metal content precise to the face value. Martin Loges of Sunnyvale Foundation, California stated, “Of all the rarities I have seen or heard of, there is no doubt in my mind that this is the single most important of all, the very first silver dollar. This is the coin that has it all.”

Monday, June 21, 2010

Greece’s Rating Downgrade and the Impact on Gold Prices

The preliminary news of a brewing economic trouble in the Euro Zone began pouring in with the start of FY 2010. The problem that began with Greece, gripped Spain and Portugal as well, jeopardizing the future of Euro, one of the best paper currency alternatives to the US Dollar. The sovereign debt of these nations reached to alarming levels, much higher than their GDPs. The next blow came as Greece requested an EU/IMF sponsored bailout package in April 2010, followed by a credit rating downgrade by Standard & Poor. The debt rating of Greece was reduced to BB+ (non-investment grade) on April 27, 2010.

The industry watchers remain divided on the exact impact of the crisis, yet everyone agrees that any sovereign credit default is likely to destabilize an already slow world economy. As the bailout package is being formulated, another leading agency, Moody’s Investor Service pegged Greece’s rating to Ba1 (junk), down four notches on June 14, 2010. While this has instigated a lot of furor with the European Union expressing a ‘surprise’ over the move, the investors and speculators seem to have taken a different beat. A key fact in the case is that the national debt of the United States has also reached at historic levels, crossing $13 trillion. As a tumbling Euro has lost much of its attraction as an alternative to a weakening Dollar, the traditional preferred commodity gold has regained its sheen.

Much on the similar lines as during the global meltdown of 2008, the investors at various levels have started switching to the yellow metal, as an effective hedge against any further destabilization in the world economy. Apart from the panic-driven consumer demand, the market for speculative positions is also heating up. There is a large section of experts, who have faith in the EU/IMF rescue package for Greece. However, an equally sizable number, including the credit rating agencies, believes that there is a strong probability of administrative issues and implementation risks inherent in the program. Last week has been a witness of the wavering market sentiments, where gold touched the record price of $1,251.20 before reaching $1,214.

Moody’s latest action reflected in the gold spot that hovered around $1,226.95 on Monday. The August delivery futures jumped approximately $5 to reach $1,299.10. ScotiaMocatta of Scotiabank Group expects that after consolidating around the current levels, gold is expected to reach new highs in the coming days. Meanwhile, another leading agency Fitch has clarified that it is not contemplating a rating downgrade for the ailing country, in the near future.

Friday, June 18, 2010

The Advancing Gold Futures

The significance of gold as a measuring standard of wealth and a viable investment option has been recognized since ancient times. Even after the dissolution of the Gold Standard worldwide, the yellow metal remains the most important asset for the various Central Banks across the globe. In such times, the demand surges in every quarter from national treasuries to retail investors. The recent global recession reestablished the authority of gold coins for hedging, investment, and even for speculative purposes.

The gold futures got a fresh impetus on June 15, 2010, amidst the growing concerns about the state of global economy. The August-delivery gold futures increased by 0.8% to reach $1,234.40 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after hovering around $1,220 for a couple of days. Amidst concerns over the rising sovereign debt levels and weakening US Dollar, gold is increasingly seen as an effective alternative. The Dollar Index (DXY) was down by 0.7% to 85.93, while Euro ended approximately 1% higher than the Dollar. The Dollar Index measures the price of the US Dollar, relative to six major currencies of the world. The Greece-led economic crisis that came into picture in the first quarter of 2010 sent warning signals in the already ailing world economy. The impact of these events in the Euro Zone could not be assessed completely until date. As more and more grim news and analysis began pouring in, the fears of a double dip grew stronger.

The volatile situation in the European Union, in general, and the downgrading of Greece’s credit rating by Moody’s Investor Service on Tuesday, are the other major factors currently driving the gold prices. The credit rating agency slashed the ratings to non-investment grade, pointing out the inherent risks of IMF-sponsored proposed bailout packages for Greece. The Chicago-based Future Path Trading’s futures analyst, Frank Lesh stated that it is still uncertain whether the European Union is out of ‘danger’ and on the path of recovery. Nevertheless, the popular sentiments remain highly skewed in favor of gold. According to analyst Stephen Platt from Archer Financial Services in Chicago, following the past week’s price fluctuations, the commodity appears to be consolidating. Ever since the debt crisis became apparent, the commodity has become pricier by 12%. For the first time in almost four decades, since the gold futures were introduced on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the bullion touched $1,245.60.

Sunday, June 6, 2010

American Eagle Gold Coins Well Know Bullion Coins

American Eagle Gold Coins are well known bullion coins. These are minted in USA and as per the rules the gold is 100% American for it to be considered legal. These were launched when South African gold was banned due to protest against apartheid.

The American Eagle Gold Coins are 22 carat gold, i.e. 91.67% pure gold. They are made in 1/10 oz, ¼ oz, ½ oz and 1 oz denominations which are also the weight of the coin i.e. its gold content. Gold has baser metal like copper and silver alloy content. They differ from Kruggerands in their yellow color, which is due to the alloy. Kruggerands are deep orange.

This coin was designed by Augustus Saint Gaudens, the world famous designer. It has the Lady of Liberty holding her torch on one side, the other has a male eagle flying above a female eagle and a baby eagle. It is rich in symbolism. The male eagle represents the power and might of USA, and the male eagle also carries an olive branch that represents USA’s commitment to peace. All of the coins bear the same design. The gold content varies as per the denomination.

Another great advantage is that American Eagle Gold Coins are recognized globally. They are, in fact, the most popular gold coins in the world. Hollywood has done its bit in making people from countries all over the world familiar with both its intrinsic value as well as its artistic value. This adds to their appeal as a collector’s item. People display pride in owning an American Eagle Gold Coin.

Moreover, U.S. Mint guarantees their gold content and their weight.

Thursday, June 3, 2010

Euro Debt Risks Fuel Demand for Gold

On May 27th according to Bloomber investors bought precious metals over concerns of Europe debt crisis sending gold near a one week high. The euro declined as gold bullion rose to $1,212.25 an ounce by 8:10 a.m. in Sydney. June delivery gold is up 3% for the week ending May 28th.

On May 26th platinum rose 0.3% to $1,520.50 an ounce while palladium rose another 0.7% to $442 an ounce.

Silver also increase 0.2% to $18.10 an ounce achieving a total of 2.3% over the last three days.

Low Interest Rates May Allow Gold and Silver to Rise

With the Federal reserve most likely not changing the current fiscal policy, gold and silver prices may rise due to low interest rates allowing investors to buy precious metals as a hedge against inflation, according to Dave Rusate, GE Capital's managing director of foreign exchange and commodities.

"If the government doesn't raise interest rates, that allows hedge funds and other speculators who try to protect themselves from inflation to buy" (gold and silver), says Rusate.

For the ninth straight year gold futures have risen and are up already 11 percent this year. A new record was achieved in May 14 when gold hit $1,249.70 an ounce. Silver is also up on the year at around 25% in the last 12 months.

Rusate also states that platinum may have a nice jump in the next month as South Africa the world's largest platinum producer slows down production due to the World Cup. South Africa is the host country for the World Cup and electricity flowing to mining companies may be directed toward the event.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Transitional Gold Coins

United States gold coin production has produced several instances of two different designs being produced simultaneously, or within the same year. These are scaled transitional coins and they make for a very interesting collecting focus for the gold coin buyer.

The one dollar gold dollar denomination, the most obvious transitional issue occurred in 1854 when both the Type 1 and the Type 2 gold coin issues were produced. Both of these are relatively common although the Type 2 becomes scarce in the higher grades and rare in MS64 or better. In 1856 two designs were produced: the Type 2 and the Type 3. Since the Type 2 was only made in San Francisco during this year and there are no 1856-S Type 3 gold dollars this isn’t a transitional issue in the sense of the 1854.

There are many other transitional issues, such as the quarter eagle denomination. In 1796 2 coins were minted, one with No Stars and With Stars in the designs. Both of these are rare in all grades and because of price constraints they could be considered one more difficult coins to acquire in a transitional set. The next transitional issue occurred in 1834 when both the Capped Bust and the Classic Head quarter eagles were struck at the Philadelphia mint. The former is an extremely rare coin in all grades while the latter is common in grades up to and including MS63.

The largest group of transitional issues exist in the early half eagles. The reason for these transitional issues tends to be different than, for the 1854 Type 1 and Type 2 dollar when the design was changed to facilitate improved striking.

The twenty dollar U.S. gold coin contains more interesting transitional coins for the specialist. The first of these is the 1866-S No Motto and With Motto. The former is a very scarce coin in all grades and it remains unknown in Uncirculated. The latter is fairly common in circulated grades and scarce in Uncirculated with nearly all of the two to three dozen known in Uncirculated grading MS60 to MS61.

The termination of the Liberty Head design in 1907 meant that an interesting group of transitional coins from this year are available. The 1907 Liberty Head issues were produced at the Philadelphia, Denver and San Francisco mints and all three are common in grades up to MS63. The 1907-S is very rare.

Augustus St. Gaudens’ redesign of the double eagle was introduced in 1907. Most transitional collections would include a High Relief from this year as well as a 1907 No Motto. Both of these coins are readily available in Uncirculated grades and the No Motto is abundant even in MS65 to MS66.